Overview of the Damaged Wood Forecast

Recent adjustments to the damaged wood forecast in Germany indicate a noteworthy reduction in the expected volume of timber affected by damage. The Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) has published its fourth forecast for 2024, suggesting a nationwide volume of 25.3 million cubic meters (m³) of damaged wood. This figure represents a 27.2% decrease compared to 2023 and is 8.5% lower than earlier projections from mid-year.

Breakdown by Timber Type

The adjustment in volume is significant for both softwood and hardwood varieties. Of the anticipated damaged wood, approximately 22.3m m³ consists of softwoods, reflecting a staggering decline of 29.3%. In contrast, hardwood volumes are predicted to be around 3.1m m³, showing a milder decline of 6.9%. Interestingly, the hardwood volume forecasted has increased by 3.8% from June figures, while softwood volumes have been slashed by 9.9%.

Current Data on Damaged Wood

As of now, data indicates that Germany has already experienced around 19.1m m³ of damaged wood in the first nine months of the year. This includes 17.1m m³ of softwoods and 2.0m m³ of hardwoods. With several months still remaining in 2023, an additional 6.3m m³ is anticipated—5.2m m³ from softwoods and 1.0m m³ from hardwoods.

Regional Insights: Focus on Bavaria

Bavaria continues to be the region most significantly impacted by timber damage, with the current forecast estimating around 8.8m m³ of damaged wood. This is a decline of 9.6% when compared to 2023, but slightly more than what was estimated at mid-year. The forecast for softwood in Bavaria has also seen a downward adjustment, now estimated at 8.2m m³. This is a reduction of 3.0% from earlier predictions and 10.6% compared to last year. Interestingly, hardwood damage in Bavaria is experiencing a boost, with forecasts revealing an increase of 370,000 m³ or approximately 71.6%, bringing the total to 635,000 m³.

Beetle Damage Trends

Market experts had anticipated a more significant decrease in timber damage in Bavaria, particularly following reports from the Bavarian state forest office that indicated beetle-damaged wood had stabilized at half of last year’s figures. This could suggest an emerging trend where mitigation efforts against pest infestations may be yielding some positive results, although the overall impact still represents a considerable portion of timber supply.

Implications for Timber Buyers and Suppliers

For wholesalers and suppliers in the timber market across Europe and the US, the reduction in damaged wood presents both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, the decline in volume may ease pressure on supply chains; on the other, it could affect the availability of certain timber grades, particularly softwoods that have suffered extensive damage this year. Stakeholders must remain vigilant in monitoring these trends and adjusting their procurement strategies accordingly to navigate the evolving landscape of the wood and timber industry.