Decline in Overall Exports

In the first nine months of 2024, EU softwood lumber exports to the US witnessed a considerable downturn, with volumes plummeting by 16.3% year-on-year, totaling 2.61 million m³. Export value also fell by 15%, amounting to €699.78 million. This trend highlights ongoing challenges in the timber market.

Key Contributors to the Decline

Germany, the predominant exporter within the EU, reported a substantial decrease in both volume and value. Softwood lumber shipments to the US fell by 18% to 1.49 million m³, while the export value decreased by 22% to €372.51 million. Similarly, Sweden experienced a 9% decline in volumes, totaling 760,354 m³, with a 10% drop in export value to €203.26 million.

Latvia's Remarkable Growth

In contrast to the prevailing negative trend, Latvia emerged as a notable exception, showcasing a robust growth trajectory. The volume of softwood lumber exports to the US surged by 48%, reaching 95,973 m³, and the export value nearly doubled to €29.62 million. This remarkable performance underscores Latvia's growing presence in the US market and its ability to capitalize on opportunities despite broader market challenges.

Finland's Resilience Amidst Adversity

Finland also exhibited resilience amid tough market conditions, reporting only a 6% decline in export value compared to the previous year. The export value for Finnish softwood lumber reached €22.16 million, indicating a lesser impact of the overall market downturn on Finnish suppliers. This stability reflects Finland's strategic positioning and potential adaptability within the exporting landscape.

Price Trends for Softwood Lumber

Interestingly, average prices for EU softwood lumber exports to the US increased slightly, rising from €264.13/m³ in 2023 to €267.77/m³ in 2024, representing an increase of 1.38%. Notably, Latvia saw the most significant price jump, with values escalating by 34.05% to €308.61/m³. This suggests a potential opportunity for Latvian suppliers to enhance profitability in a challenging export environment.

Looking Forward

The trends observed in EU softwood lumber exports to the US signal ongoing challenges for exporters, particularly from Germany and Sweden, while also indicating promising growth for Latvia and resilience from Finland. As the market evolves, timber suppliers and wholesale buyers must stay attuned to these shifts, adapting their strategies to navigate the complexities of a changing landscape.

Given these dynamics, EU suppliers might benefit from re-evaluating their market approaches and investing in product differentiation or value-added products to bolster competitiveness in the North American market. Meanwhile, buyers in the US could find new opportunities in emerging markets within the EU, particularly with countries like Latvia positioning themselves strongly in the export arena.